Top of the Hour


Good morning from Hotline. Today we are firmly in the general election, running down the latest Democratic endorsements in the House, and wondering how NFL quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ potential vice presidential run would impact the Jets’ week 9 game.

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What's News

GENERAL ELECTION: President Biden and former President Trump formally sealed the Democratic and Republican nominations, respectively, after dominating the primaries in Georgia, Mississippi, and Washington yesterday. Trump also won the Hawaii GOP caucus yesterday. The races were effectively uncontested: All of Trump’s rivals have now dropped out, while Biden’s only opponent was 2020 presidential candidate Marianne Williamson (D), who never gained any traction in the race. “There is no longer any doubt that the fall election will feature a rematch between two flawed and unpopular presidents. At 81, Biden is already the oldest president in U.S. history, while the 77-year-old Trump is facing decades in prison as a defendant in four criminal cases.” This year’s general election will be the first rematch since 1956, and the first between two presidents since 1912. (AP)

One slight downside for Trump was that former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (R), who suspended her campaign last week, amassed over 77,000 votes in Georgia. Trump lost the Peach State to Biden by 11,779 votes in 2020. (AP)

Anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) has reportedly selected his running mate and will make the decision public within two weeks. Kennedy Jr. has reportedly spoken to former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura (I), former Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA), former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (I-HI), 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang (F), and NFL quarterback Aaron Rodgers, among others. “All have turned him down, or their conversations have not advanced, except for” Rodgers and Ventura, reportedly. (New York Times) Twenty-six states and the District of Columbia require independent candidates to announce their running mates early to qualify for their ballot, per Ballot Access News, forcing Kennedy Jr. to act sooner. (Washington Post)

Special counsel Robert Hur defended his report on Biden’s handling of classified documents, and his decision to not recommend criminal charges against the president, during his cross-examination in Congress yesterday. “We did not … identify evidence that rose to the level of proof beyond a reasonable doubt,” Hur told House lawmakers during yesterday’s hearing. “Because that evidence fell short of that standard, I declined to recommend criminal charges against Mr. Biden.” Politics, rather than legal issues, dominated the hearing, as it “strayed from the legal minutiae of Hur’s investigation and into a back-and-forth between Republican and Democratic members as to whose presidential candidate was mentally unfit to be commander in chief.” (National Journal)

DEMOCRATS: Biden will visit Milwaukee today, where he will highlight how his bipartisan infrastructure law from 2021 helped “to convert a 2.6-mile section of Sixth Street to a ‘complete street.’” This is all part of Biden’s plan to highlight the economic impact of policies like the bipartisan infrastructure law that he signed in 2021. (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) The Biden campaign will base its Wisconsin operations this year in Milwaukee, “the first time a Democratic presidential nominee has made the state's largest city a state campaign headquarters in at least two decades. Biden campaign officials said Tuesday the move to center efforts in Milwaukee reflects the campaign's focus on Black and Latino voters and suburban women in the Milwaukee area.” (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

COLORADO: Rep. Ken Buck (R-04) announced he will resign from Congress on March 22, despite previously announcing he would retire at the end of his term. (release) Gov. Jared Polis (D) announced the special election to fill Buck’s seat will be held on June 25, the same day as the regularly scheduled primary.

Buck’s sudden departure means Speaker Mike Johnson’s “​​majority could shrink to a single vote by April if New York voters, as expected, choose a Democrat to replace former Rep. Brian Higgins (D) in a Buffalo-area seat. That would further complicate any challenge to pass legislation that has unified Democratic opposition. … Buck’s early exit” could complicate Rep. Lauren Boebert’s (R-03) path to reelection as well. Boebert announced in December that she would cross the state and run in Buck’s seat, a safely red district. But the timing of the special election “throws a wrench into her chances of winning the race in November. A GOP committee will choose the party’s nominee for the special election, and it’s unclear Boebert would be selected.” (National Journal)

In CO-05, Trump endorsed state GOP Chairman Dave Williams to succeed retiring Rep. Doug Lamborn (R). Williams previously challenged Lamborn in 2022. (Truth Social) Johnson endorsed 2006 candidate Jeff Crank (R). (Twitter)

RACE FOR THE HOUSE: Three outside groups endorsed Democratic incumbents and challengers, according to news first shared with Hotline

Defend the Vote, an outside group backing candidates who support “pro-democracy” reforms such as protecting voting rights and “ending dark money,” endorsed 12 Frontline Democrats. The group endorsed Reps. Jahana Hayes (CT-05), Nikki Budzinski (IL-13), Eric Sorensen (IL-17), Frank Mrvan (IN-01), Hillary Scholten (MI-03), Angie Craig (MN-02), Chris Pappas (NH-01), Gabe Vasquez (NM-02), Susie Lee (NV-03), Pat Ryan (NY-18), Emilia Sykes (OH-13), and Susan Wild (PA-07). (Hotline reporting)

Democrats Serve, an outside group backing candidates with public service backgrounds, endorsed former state Rep. Amish Shah (D) in AZ-01, 2022 IA-01 nominee Christina Bohannan (D), former Agriculture Department official Lanon Baccam (D) in IA-03, former New Jersey Working Families Party Director Sue Altman (D) in NJ-07, and 2022 PA-01 nominee Ashley Ehasz (D). Democrats Serve also endorsed candidates in competitive primaries: former Justice Department official Shomari Figures (D), who’s in an April runoff for AL-02, Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski (D) in MD-02, state Del. Joe Vogel (D) in MD-06, and Public Lands Commissioner Hilary Franz (D) in WA-06. (Hotline reporting)

Tomorrow’s Jobs, a group that supports candidates with entrepreneurial backgrounds, endorsed Altman, Franz, Shah, and Vogel for their work in the nonprofit sector. (Hotline reporting)

NEW YORK: Since her narrow victory in 2022, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) has sought to improve her political stature by helping Democrats flip House seats in New York. Democrats blamed Hochul for the party’s disappointing performance in the state in 2022, as she didn’t acknowledge the crime issue in New York until late in the election. This year, her strategy “involves a full-throated support for abortion rights, a tougher line on immigration and withering attacks on Republicans” while also boosting fundraising and staffing for the state party. Republicans, including Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, say Hochul will be featured in ads against Democratic candidates this year, pointing to her “failed leadership.” (Politico)

AZ SEN: The NRSC will “stump and fundraise” for 2022 GOV nominee Kari Lake (R) in Maricopa County, Arizona on April 1. The committee will also “ help Lake pay for internal polling and her field program, which includes get-out-the-vote programs.” The party sees Arizona “as one of their top opportunities to gain a Senate seat in November, prompting every corner of the party to coalesce around Lake, despite her controversial past.” (Axios)

Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) endorsed Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-03) in the race. (KTAR)

UT SEN: Rep. John Curtis (R-03) “started a climate caucus on Capitol Hill. He attended a global climate summit in Dubai a few months ago. He’s often touting the advantages of clean energy. It’s the kind of thing you’d expect from a liberal lawmaker hailing from a blue state.” But Curtis represents ruby-red Utah and is running to replace retiring Sen. Mitt Romney (R). “You won’t mistake the 63-year-old former Provo mayor as a tree-hugging acolyte of the Green New Deal. He still talks about the need for a balanced energy portfolio that includes oil and gas. But he’s steadfastly built a record of clean-energy advocacy during his more than six years in Congress.” (National Journal)

CALIFORNIA: Garden Grove Councilwoman Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (D) cut consumer-rights attorney Derek Tran’s (D) lead for second place to just 200 votes following a significant vote drop Tuesday. Rep. Michelle Steel (R-45) advanced to the November election last week. 7% of the vote remains outstanding. (AP)

In CA-09, an NRCC poll (Feb. 18-20; 400 LVs; +/-4.9%) conducted by NMB Research found Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R) and Rep. Josh Harder (D) statistically tied. Lincoln was at 44% and Harder was at 40%. The pair advanced to the general election in November without much of a fight. (Washington Examiner)

NC GOV: A Cygnal poll for the conservative Carolina Journal (March 6-7; 600 LVs; +/-3.9%) found Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) leading state Attorney General Josh Stein (D), 44%-39%. 15% were undecided. (Carolina Journal)

OH SEN: Undecided voters dominated a new Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll (March 7-10; 1,300 RVs; +/-2.6%) less than a week before the March 19 primary. 2022 candidate Matt Dolan (R) barely led the field with 26%, followed by 2022 candidate Bernie Moreno (R) at 23%, and Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) at 16%. 32% of voters were undecided. In hypothetical head-to-head matchups with Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), the senator led Dolan, 37%-34%. Brown led Moreno, 39%-34%, and he led LaRose, 39%-33% (release)

IN GOV: “The claws are coming out in the Indiana governor's race. At the first debate of the six-way Republican primary competition held in Carmel Monday night, candidates took digs at one another for the first time after a docile start to the evening.” Sen. Mike Braun (R), the frontrunner of the race according to public polling, “took the brunt of the attacks,” particularly from former commerce Secretary Brad Chambers (R) and former Attorney General Curtis Hill (R). “Chambers issued the first dig of the evening halfway through the debate by questioning Braun's record in the Senate as a fiscal conservative.” Hill also leveled the most direct attack on Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch (R) and term-limited Gov. Eric Holcomb’s (R) administration, particularly for his handling of the COVID pandemic. (Indianapolis Star)

NJ SEN: The leading Republicans in the race to challenge embattled Sen. Bob Menendez (D) will have their first debate on April 3. The candidates include developer Curtis Bashaw (R), Mendham Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner (R), and former reporter Alex Zdan (R). (New Jersey Globe)

   Bonus Episode: Super Tuesday Explained

Hotline editor Kirk A. Bado, senior national correspondent Zac Weisz, House correspondent James. A Downs, and gubernatorial correspondent Mary Frances McGowan break down last week's results.

 Listen to our Latest Podcast


  Paging the Hotline

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 Hotline's Graph of the Day

 
 

A majority of Americans believe the country would be governed better if more women were in political office, according to a new poll from Gallup. Researchers found that 57% of Americans believe the country would be better off with more women in office, "more than double the percentage who think it would be governed worse (22%)." This is down slightly from the high-water mark of 63% in 2014 since Gallup started asking this question in 1999.

 

 Hair of the Dog

Staff at a Virginia wildlife center pretend to be red foxes as they care for an orphaned kit” (WUSA)



Our Call

Rep. Ken Buck's departure and Rep. Lauren Boebert’s uncertain future means a changing of the guard in the Colorado delegation is underway. By the start of the next Congress, potentially half of Colorado's eight House seats could have a new member: Buck is leaving; Rep. Doug Lamborn is retiring; Boebert's path in CO-04 is unclear with a looming special election; and Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-08) is one of the most heavily targeted Democrats after she won with the smallest vote share of any House candidate across the country. While the media will focus on Boebert's muddied path, Colorado's delegation is bound to look significantly different next year, alongside Indiana and North Carolina with the potential for seismic shifts in legislative personalities and priorities.James A. Downs

 Fresh Brewed Buzz

Whistleblower John Barnett, a former Boeing quality manager who raised concerns about the 787 Dreamliner factory, was found dead in Charleston, South Carolina Saturday. Barnett was in Charleston for a deposition for a lawsuit against Boeing for alleged retaliation. Despite local officials describing his death as a self-inflicted gunshot wound, police are investigating considering the circumstances. (Charleston Post and Courier)

Joe Biden says Syracuse University wants to host his presidential library” (Syracuse.com)

Amid rising violence and unrest in Haiti following the arranged resignation of Prime Minister Ariel Henry, the U.S. is deploying another team of U.S. Marines to protect the U.S. embassy. (CBS News)

The House is expected to pass a “bill that could ban one of the world’s most popular social media apps from the United States” despite intense lobbying from TikTok to block the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act. The bill “would require Beijing-based ByteDance to divest itself of control of TikTok or be banned from U.S. app stores and hosting services. Both House GOP and Democratic leaders back the legislation.” (Punchbowl News)

In states with laws targeting LGBTQ issues, school hate crimes quadrupled” (Washington Post)

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R) wants everyone to know where she got her new smile. (Twitter) Just don’t ask her if she’s an influencer for cosmetic dentistry. (New York)

Biden or Trump? China can’t pick its ‘poison’ to mend strained ties.” (Washington Post)

The latest dividing line towering over Washington? The heights of Sens. John Fetterman (D-PA) and Eric Schmitt (R-MO). (Twitter)


 Rooster's Crow

The House is in at 9 a.m. The Senate is in at 10 a.m.

Biden will depart the White House at 1:35 p.m. and fly to Milwaukee, arriving at 3:55 p.m. He will deliver remarks on his efforts to create well-paid jobs at the Pieper-Hillside Boys & Girls Club at 4 p.m., before joining a campaign reception at 4:50 p.m. He will stay in Milwaukee overnight.


Swizzle Challenge

The first president whose mother attended his inauguration was President Garfield.

Peter Bergerson won yesterday’s challenge. Here’s his challenge: Who was the only vice president chosen by the Senate and in what year?

The 3rd correct email gets to submit the next question.

 Early Bird Special

The GOP congressman from Utah is running to succeed Sen. Mitt Romney in a primary where energy policy burns brightly.

Biden wants Congress to expand the new price-negotiation authority. If Trump wins in November, views differ on what he would or should do about the policy.

Polling is really hard. Caution is always warranted.

PLUS: Former Special Counsel Hur defends report on Biden document probe; GOP Rep. Buck is leaving Congress next week; and another IVF bill blocked in Senate.

 Shot...

“S—. The ropes? F— you talkin’ about, dog? What you mean, ‘the ropes’? We running 1,000 miles per hour. They tryin’ to figure out how to stop us, man.” — Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY 16) on if progressives in The Squad are on the ropes (Raw Story)

 Chaser

“There is so much at stake / Seems our freedom's up / Against the ropes / Does the crowd understand? / Is it East versus West / Or man against man? / Can any nation stand alone?” — Survivor (“Burning Heart”)


Kirk A. Bado, Wake-Up Call! Editor

Associate Editor: Hannah Thacker
Senior Production Editor: Taameen Mohammad
Staff Writers: Mary Frances McGowan, Zac Weisz, James A. Downs, Sydney Kashiwagi
Hotline Intern:  Erika Filter

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