SENATE FUNDRAISING ROUNDUP: The Senate money race is already underway for the 2026 midterms, especially for vulnerable incumbents. “In-cycle Democratic senators entered the new year with an average of $3.5 million on hand, slightly more than the average GOP senator’s $3.4 million on hand. Republicans will need all the money they can raise as they defend roughly two-fifths of their conference.” Among the five battleground races, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) leads with a nearly $5 million war chest in the new year. Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Thom Tillis (R-NC) entered 2025 with $2.2 million and $2.6 million on hand, respectively. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), who hasn’t announced her reelection plans, raised $170,000 in the fourth quarter of 2024 and had $1.5 million on hand. Republican senators threatened with primary challenges have especially large war chests heading into the new year. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has the largest war chest—$15.6 million—of any in-cycle senator, raising $2.1 million in the fourth quarter. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), the senator most vulnerable to a GOP primary, entered the cycle with $6.6 million on hand after raising $849,000 during the fourth quarter. (Hotline reporting) TRANSITION: In a 54-46 vote, the Senate confirmed former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi as the attorney general. Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) was the only Democrat to vote for her confirmation. (New York Times) Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (R-HI) and anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) each cleared hurdles on their paths to becoming director of national intelligence and Health and Human Services secretary, respectively. The Senate Intelligence Committee advanced Gabbard’s nomination, while the Senate Finance Committee greenlighted Kennedy Jr.’s, after Cassidy finally came around to supporting him. The White House had to lobby certain senators in order to get these Cabinet nominees through committee. (Wall Street Journal) BATTLE FOR THE SENATE: NRSC Chair Tim Scott, in a closed-door lunch Tuesday, told red-state GOP senators to pull their own weight in next year’s midterms. Scott said the 2026 strategy is to secure safe Republican seats “early” to focus on growing the party’s majority from 53 to 55 seats. “Republicans were privately fuming that they needed to spend resources on” Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE) in 2024, taking away money from swing state races in Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin—all won by President Trump and Senate Democrats. (Axios) Sen. Ted Budd (R-NC) will depart as a NRSC vice chair ahead of the 2026 cycle, focusing on his responsibilities in his home state, his work on the Intelligence Committee, and recovery efforts in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, according to a source familiar with the senator. Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) will take Budd’s place as one of five vice chairs. (Hotline reporting) MI SEN: State Attorney General Dana Nessel (D) is exploring a run to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters’ (D) in 2026. Nessel spokesperson Kimberly Rush told Hotline that the attorney general hasn’t made a final decision yet. Rush said: “She is pleased to see this has been embraced by Democratic voters, and is exploring the open U.S. Senate seat as a potential avenue to continue this critical work.” (Hotline reporting) GENERAL ELECTION: After failing for decades to achieve it through the state Legislature, Nebraska Republicans have proposed a referendum on whether the state should switch to a winner-take-all state in presidential elections. Nebraska currently assigns two Electoral College votes to the statewide winner, and one to each winner of each of its three Congressional Districts. (AP) REPUBLICANS: “Trump declared on Tuesday that the United States should seize control of Gaza and permanently displace the entire Palestinian population of the devastated seaside enclave, one of the most brazen ideas that any American leader has advanced in years.” Speaking at a press conference alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump said: “The U.S. will take over the Gaza Strip, and we will do a job with it too.” The Geneva Convention bars the forced relocation of populations. (New York Times) All USAID employees will be placed on administrative leave—both in the United States and abroad—on Friday. (release) Abolishing USAID would require an act of Congress. (Wall Street Journal) SOUTH CAROLINA: Gov. Henry McMaster (R) and Scott, a fellow South Carolina senator, will co-chair Graham’s 2026 reelection campaign. The support from McMaster and Scott, both surrogates for Trump in 2024, is an early sign of strength for Graham as the threat of a primary challenge looms. Potential primary challengers include Rep. Ralph Norman (R-05) and 2024 SC-04 candidate Adam Morgan (R). (AP) Former Gov. Mark Sanford (R), “a once-rising star whose career was derailed in a bizarre personal scandal, is quietly discussing” a potential comeback gubernatorial bid in 2026. “Four sources with knowledge of Sanford’s conversations say he has been speaking with potential donors about a bid to replace” term-limited McMaster. “Sanford hasn’t publicly weighed in about the race, but two of the sources, one of whom is close to Sanford, pointed to a state-level campaign account that still has $1 million left over.” (Pluribus News) NY-21 SPECIAL: Local Democrats named dairy farmer Blake Gendebien (D) as their nominee to replace Rep. Elise Stefanik (R), who’s set to depart Congress for the Trump administration. Gendebien grew up on his family’s dairy farm and moved to Atlanta after college. He purchased the farm next to his parents’ when it came up for sale and “has built the farm into a 500-cattle operation.” Gendebien faces an uphill battle in the staunchly conservative district, but “Democrats are hopeful that the condensed timeline—and Republicans’ spotty special election track record” will help him break through. The timeline for the special election is uncertain, as Stefanik has yet to be confirmed and as New York Democrats consider making changes to the special-election timeline. (Times-Union) Stefanik senior adviser Alex deGrasse “will remain in the North Country to help Republicans keep her seat red—a sign her political apparatus will remain an influential force in the district.” DeGrasse will run the super PAC Save American Freedom, and “Republicans will also tap into the House GOP Battleground Fund, the New York Republican Committee and Stefanik’s PAC.” Stefanik’s “extensive donor network and digital infrastructure” will also be relied upon in the race. (Politico)
NJ GOV: The four leading GOP gubernatorial candidates, state Sen. Jon Bramnick (R), 2021 GOV nominee Jack Ciattarelli (R), former state Sen. Ed Durr (R), and former conservative radio host Bill Spadea (R), debated for the first time ahead of the June 10 primary on Tuesday at Rider University. “They all frequently talked over each other and faced interruption from the moderators as they continually launched attacks, with some of them at times competing for the mantle of who is the biggest supporter of” Trump. “Bramnick was the lone Trump skeptic on the stage.” (AP) |