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Jeff Dufour

Welcome to The Sunday Nightcap, a weekly check-in on the week that was and the week to come in politics and policy with National Journal's Editor in Chief. Suggestions? Tips? Comments? Drop me an email. If you don't want to receive this newsletter, you can adjust your subscription preferences here.

“You’ve always been like this.” That’s the pointed line that Walter White delivered to the slick-talking fraudster Saul Goodman in a flashback during Monday’s series finale of Better Call Saul. But it could just as easily come from Republican leadership in the direction of one Donald J. Trump, who faces a veritable Trump Tower’s worth of criminal and civil liability that threatens to drag the party’s electoral fortunes down.

Up this week, we'll learn whether the House careers of Mondaire Jones, Jerry Nadler, or Carolyn Maloney will come to an end, even though plenty of their voters have decamped to the Hamptons or the Catskills for August.

More on that (and a whole lot more) below. But first, our ...

 

Top Reads of the Week

  1. How and where abortion could determine majorities in November
  2. The political winds swirl yet again
  3. The biggest gubernatorial race of 2023 heats up
  4. Cheney's lonely 'suicide mission' comes to its logical conclusion
  5. Nevadans make the case to host first-in-the-nation primary
 

The Week That Was: Policy

President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act into law on Tuesday, calling it the final piece of his (pared-down) domestic agenda. He plans a nationwide tour to tout his recent legislative victories and a celebration at the White House on Sept. 6.

The White House is rolling out a new three-pronged strategy on abortion rights for the months ahead, Reuters’ Nandita Bose scooped.

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky called for a restructuring of the agency, following its flawed response to COVID-19.

The Takeaway: As Hannah Thacker notes, such a reorganization has a precedent during a public-health crisis: During the early days of AIDS in the 1980s, the “agency shifted its focus from simply monitoring communicable diseases to handling more broad public health concerns.”

In other heath news, the FDA finalized a rule to allow sales of over-the-counter hearing aids.

The Week That Was: Politics

As polls had indicated would happen, Rep. Liz Cheney lost her GOP primary in Wyoming to Trump-backed Harriet Hageman. The final score, however, was even more grim for Cheney than polls predicted, delivering her a 40-point defeat. Only two out of 10 GOP members who voted to impeach Trump now have a shot of returning to Congress: David Valadao in California and Dan Newhouse in Washington.

The Takeaway: As Tom DeFrank reported, Cheney always knew that her aggressive opposition to Trump was a “suicide mission” in Wyoming. Yet she leaves with the “moral high ground secured,” even if her next move (which may involve a presidential bid of some kind) is unclear. “This much is certain: Cheney’s political career is far from over, and she’ll be in Donald Trump’s face in perpetuity.”

In Alaska, former state Rep. Mary Peltola (D), former Gov. Sarah Palin (R), and software engineer Nick Begich III (R) advanced from the all-party primary to the general election in November. The same candidates are heading to a ranked-choice vote to fill out the remainder of the late Rep. Don Young’s term. As expected, GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Trump-backed Kelly Tshibaka advanced to the general election. Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) “was headed to the ranked-choice November general election along with” former Gov. Bill Walker (I) and former state Rep. Les Gara (D).

The effects of the FBI’s search of Mar-a-Lago continued to reverberate around the political world: Judge Bruce Reinhart released the search warrant and said he’d be willing to release portions of the Justice Department’s probable-cause affidavit, though likely appeals could cause delays, and the DOJ may ask for significant redactions. DOJ investigators met with former Trump White House attorneys Pat Cipollone and Patrick Philbin. The FBI and the Homeland Security Department warned that the search had resulted in increased threats to law enforcement, including a threat to put a dirty bomb near FBI headquarters.

The Takeaway: As George Condon notes, Trump’s “decision to take classified documents to his Florida home after his 2020 defeat was very much in keeping with the defiant attitude he all but flaunted during his four years in office.” George then catalogs 16 instances as president in which Trump played fast and loose with national secrets, up to and including sharing them with Kid Rock.

In Jan. 6 news, the Justice Department asked the National Archives to turn over all materials it has provided to the committee investigating the attack. DOJ also subpoenaed former Trump White House lawyer Eric Herschmann, who has already offered explosive testimony to the J6 committee.

The Washington Post reported that Trump attorneys had moved to copy voting-machine data in several states.

Meanwhile, Rudy Giuliani testified to the grand jury investigating election tampering in Fulton County, Georgia, after being informed he was a “target” of the investigation. A federal court ruled that Sen. Lindsey Graham has to testify in the same case, although an appeals court later agreed to a temporary delay.

New polls in battleground Senate races showed Mark Kelly ahead of Blake Masters in Arizona, Mandela Barnes leading Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, and Cheri Beasley tied with Ted Budd in North Carolina. Rep. Tim Ryan was within the margin of error against J.D. Vance in Ohio.

Mitch McConnell admitted that the House has a greater chance to flip than the Senate. Why? Because “candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome.”

The Takeaway: As Kirk Bado notes, centrist Joe O’Dea in Colorado may turn out to be Republicans’ best recruit this cycle—in a state still rated “Lean D” by The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.

Hot(line) Take of the Week

Cheney may have company in her lane

Following her primary defeat on Tuesday, Liz Cheney immediately announced that she is launching a PAC that appears to be aimed at supporting a presidential run. The notion, though, that she will hold the anti-Trump Republican lane for herself is a little myopic. Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie could well occupy this space. Even Mike Pence, who stood behind Trump throughout their time in the White House, could take some anti-Trump voters after he rebuffed his former boss on Jan. 6. Cheney has undoubtedly captured the national audience this cycle—her huge fundraising haul is a testament to this—but her path in a potential 2024 primary will likely be very crowded, whichever lane she takes.

Week Ahead: Policy

The House and Senate are still on break.

As Savannah Behrmann reports, senators from both parties would like to see the expanded child tax credit—enacted as part of the American Rescue Plan, but since expired—revived in the remaining months of this Congress.

Later this month, HHS will hold a “planning session” aimed at shifting payments for COVID-19 vaccines and treatments from the government to the commercial health care market.

Week Ahead: Politics

Tuesday’s another marquee primary day, with voters heading to the polls in Florida and New York. In the Sunshine State, Rep. Charlie Crist and state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried face off for the Democratic governor’s nod. As Mary Frances McGowan noted, Crist has led most polling, although Fried had a surprise lead in a University of North Florida poll last week.

The Takeaway: Either Democrat likely loses handily to Gov. Ron DeSantis and his national ambitions.

On the Senate side, Democrats’ nomination of Rep. Val Demings is a formality. She’ll have a tough time unseating Sen. Marco Rubio, although polling in that race has begun to tighten.

Democrats are duking it out in several key districts in and around New York City. Attorney Daniel Goldman, who took a star turn during Trump’s first impeachment, is up against Rep. Mondaire Jones, who had to switch districts to this Lower Manhattan seat. Progressive state legislator Alessandra Biaggi is trying to unseat DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney. Finally, longtime Upper Manhattan stalwarts Jerrold Nadler and Carolyn Maloney are battling for the right to represent a new district.

The Takeaway: As Casey Wooten reports from Manhattan, Maloney is centering her pitch around her feminist credentials, launching “a 12-point plan to combat recent Republican efforts to roll back abortion protections.” Limited public polling shows Nadler with a slight edge in a close race.

Finally, GOP voters in Oklahoma will choose between Rep. Markwayne Mullin and former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon in a runoff for the Republican nomination for Sen. Jim Inhofe’s seat. Inhofe is retiring with four years left in his term.

Click here for Hotline’s preview of all the key races on Tuesday.

President Biden will rally voters in Maryland on Thursday, per The Washington Post—his “first political rally in months and … the kickoff to his fall midterm push.”

The NBA will schedule no games on Election Day this November. Instead, every team will play the day before and encourage Americans to vote, NBC’s Shaquille Brewster scooped.

Mini Racker reported from Las Vegas on the well-organized effort, spearheaded by national groups representing people of color, to win first-in-the-nation status for Nevada’s primary.

Thanks for reading til the end! We look forward to seeing you here again next week!