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OH SEN | Tim Ryan (D)

Ryan Shifts Gears to General Election

The Context: Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH 13) didn’t waste any time going after author J.D. Vance (R) after the dust settled on Tuesday’s Senate primary. Within minutes of Vance declaring victory, Ryan’s team went on air with this 30-second that utlizes footage of the Republican on the campaign trail putting his foot in his mouth.

Hotline Analysis: Expect Ryan to lean into his working class contrasts to Vance’s venture capital background throughout the campaign. Recently uncovered polling suggests Vance is particularly vulnerable to attacks on his ties to GOP megadonor Peter Thiel and other questionable investments.  

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SC-01 | Nancy Mace (R)

Nikki Haley Crosses Trump

Nikki Haley

Rep. Nancy Mace (R) released a new 30-second TV ad featuring former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (R). Haley says she’s supporting Mace because she’s a “fighter” and “a strong pro-life mom” and says Mace can keep this seat Republican, an allusion to Mace’s primary opponent, 2018 candidate Katie Arrington (R), who lost to former Rep. Joe Cunningham (D). Former President Trump has endorsed Arrington.

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NH SEN | Maggie Hassan (D)

Hassan Distances Herself from Democrats

Maggie Hassan

As President Biden's poll numbers continue to bottom out, Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) launched a new TV ad, reiterating her push for a federal gas tax holiday. “I am taking on members of my own party to push a gas tax holiday and I am pushing Joe Biden to release more of our oil reserves," Hassan says in the 30-second spot. "That’s how we lower costs and get through these times.” 

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 Trends to Watch

 Abortion Takes Center Stage 

With a key Supreme Court decision on the future of abortion set for this summer, the issue was always likely to rise to the forefront of political messaging in the run-up to the November midterms. This week a leaked draft opinion showing five justices voting to overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade decision upholding the right to an abortion, the campaign maneuvering is arriving a few months early.

Democratic campaigns are seizing on the news in an attempt to galvanize their voters. In the Wisconsin Senate race, state Treasurer Sarah Godlewski (D) launched a six-figure statewide ad campaign criticizing Sen. Ron Johnson (R) for his stance on abortion. In the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race, attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) released a new television ad going after state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R) for supporting a “heartbeat” abortion bill in Pennsylvania.

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