What's News

OUTSIDE GROUPS: Senate Leadership Fund launched a $6.7 million ad buy across five states on TV, radio, and digital platforms Tuesday targeting Sens. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) ($1.6 million), Claire McCaskill (D-MO) ($1.9 million), Joe Manchin (D-WV) ($1 million), and Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) ($350,000) as well as former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) ($1.8 million). (Hotline reporting)

RACE FOR THE HOUSE: The DCCC is going up in two new districts on the outer edges of the battlefield. The committee will spent about $260,000 running ads Oct. 5-15 in the Harrisburg market where pastor George Scott (D) faces Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA 10). (Hotline reporting) And it will spent $255,000 Oct. 9-22 in the Little Rock market where state Rep. Clarke Tucker (D) is challenging Rep. French Hill (R-AR 02). (Advertising Analytics)

HOUSE FUNDRAISING ROUNDUP: Two House Democratic candidates reported raising more than $3 million in the third quarter. In KY-06, retired Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath (D) announced raising $3.65 million and ended with $1.7 million in the bank to take on Rep. Andy Barr (R). And in CA-10, Josh Harder (D) hauled in $3.5 million for his campaign against Rep. Jeff Denham (R). Other notable hauls: Former Senate aide Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (D) raised $1.7 million in IL-13; state Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D) brought in $1.6 million in IA-01; and Syracuse University Professor Dana Balter in NY-24 and Hamilton County Clerk of Courts Aftab Pureval in OH-01 announced raising $1.5 million each. (Iowa Starting Line/Hotline reporting)

CO GOV: Conservation Colorado Victory Fund, the political arm of Denver-based Conservation Colorado, “says it will spend $3.2 million in an effort to defeat” state Treasurer Walker Stapleton (R) “and to support ‘pro-conservation candidates’ to the state legislature. … Monday’s announcement does not mention Stapleton’s Democratic opponent,” Rep. Jared Polis (D). (Colorado Politics)

OBAMA: President Obama endorsed Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) for Senate as well as Sens. Bill Nelson (D-FL) and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) for reelection on Monday. He also endorsed a slew of House candidates, including Jason Crow in CO-06, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in FL-26, Cindy Axne in IA-03, Sharice Davids in KS-03, Jared Golden in ME-02, Dan Feehan in MN-01, Joe Radinovich in MN-08, Kara Eastman in NE-02, Dan Balter in NY-24, Scott Wallace in PA-01, Elaine Luria in VA-02, Abigail Spanberger in VA-07, Jennifer Wexton in VA-10, and Kim Schrier in WA-08. (release)

TN SEN: President Trump held a rally for Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) on Monday. During his speech, “the president said a Democrat takeover of Congress will plunge the country into chaos, causing the stock market to drop, taxes to rise and crime to ‘flow into the nation through open borders.’” Trump: “A vote for Marsha is really a vote for me and everything we stand for. … It’s a vote for Make America Great Again.” (Knoxville News Sentinel)

NUMBER BRUNCHING: SSRS found McCaskill edged Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) 47-44 percent (Sept. 25-29; 756 LVs; +/-4.3%) while Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) trailed Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) 47-43 percent (Sept. 25-29; 693 LVs; +/-4.6%). (CNN) Strategic Research Associates showed Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) led Heitkamp 51-41 percent (Sept. 17-27; 650LVs) (KVLY) and that Manchin bested West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) 46-38 percent (Sept. 17-26; 650 LVs). (WTAP) Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum (D) led former Rep. Ron DeSantis (R) 47-45 percent in a St. Pete Polls survey (Sept. 29-30; 2,313 LVs; +/-2%) for Florida Politics. Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) and Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) were tied at 47 percent in the same poll. (release)

In CA-45, housing bubble whistleblower Katie Porter (D) led Rep. Mimi Walters (R) 48-47 percent in a GBA Strategies poll (Sept. 20-23; 400 LVs; +/- 4.9%) conducted for End Citizens United. (release) Both parties posted conflicted polls in CO-06. Former Army Ranger Jason Crow (D) led Rep. Mike Coffman (R) by 11 points, 49-38 percent, in a poll (Sept. 18-23; 400 LVs; +/- 4.95) from Normington Petts conducted for ECU. (release) But Coffman countered with his own internal survey (Sept. 11-13; 400 RVs; +/- 4.9%) from the Tarrance Group that found him trailing by 2 points, 42-40 percent, with a Libertarian candidate garnering 9 percent and another 9 percent undecided. (release) In VA-10, a Monmouth University poll (Sept. 26-30; 374 LVs; +/- 5.1%) found Wexton leading Rep. Barbara Comstock (R) 50-44 percent. (release)  

CA-39: The woman who accused lottery winner Gil Cisneros (D) of sexual harassment recanted her accusation Monday after meeting with CIsneros. In a statement released with his campaign, Melissa Fazli accused the Congressional Leadership Fund of "weaponizing my story for their own political gain." (release) “Until this week, under the advice of former campaign manager Orrin Evans, Cisneros had maintained a laser focus on denying Fazli’s accusations from afar. … Evans stepped down as his campaign manager Monday.” (Los Angeles Times)

WI GOV: Gov. Scott Walker (R) released his 25th TV ad Tuesday featuring a longtime Wisconsin resident who says she will not be able to afford living in her home because of taxes if state schools Superintendent Tony Evers (D) becomes governor. (release)

OK GOV: Businessman Kevin Stitt (R) released his first TV ad of the general election Monday. The biographical statewide spot outlines his plans for government transparency and better teacher salaries. (release)

 
 
 
 

Our Call

Democratic candidates are already posting unfathomably massive Q3 fundraising numbers, but it's worth keeping the price of the media market in mind when assessing the state of play. Amy McGrath's $3.65 million haul buys more air time in the Lexington market than Josh Harder's $3.5 million will get him in the Sacramento-Modesto region. And neither of those are top ten markets — candidates like Andy Kim in NJ-03 and Sean Casten in IL-06 are likely to bring in a million or more but will burn through that quickly to stay on air in places like NYC, Philadelphia, and Chicago. -- Ally Mutnick 

When it comes to presidential endorsements as a litmus test for a state's politics, the presence of an Obama endorsement in Arizona while Trump has yet to schedule a rally there should be another indication the open Senate race is on the map, despite its long history as a conservative state. Trump had planned to rally for Rep. Martha McSally in her GOP bid against Sinema for retiring Sen. Jeff Flake's seat, but it was canceled with no signs a new date is on the calendar. -- Zach C. Cohen

After appearing slightly out of reach for much of this cycle Democrats have renewed confidence that they can flip PA-01, a Bucks County-based seat held by freshman Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick. Although Republicans have launched a flotilla of attack ads against Democrat Scott Wallace and contributions his family's foundation made to a population control group and a publication that supports convicted cop-killer Mumia Abu-Jamal, Wallace has a vast personal fortune he can draw on to drown those out with his own ads. However, the ads on both sides risk becoming background noise in a national environment more dependent on partisan polarization and Trump than anything else. -- Alex Clearfield

 
 

Fresh Brewed Buzz

Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX 16) “is apologizing for once criticizing a Broadway musical with actresses ‘whose only qualifications seem to be their phenomenally large breasts and tight buttocks.’” (Politico)

“It's October, so just remember one thing: que syrah, syrah. #VAWineMonth” -- Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam (D). (Twitter)

Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf (D) was unable to name a starting defensive lineman for the Philadelphia Eagles during a debate Monday. (Philadelphia Inquirer)

“Harvard Says Kavanaugh Won’t Be Teaching His 2019 Supreme Court Class” (HuffPost)

The NRCC is running Facebook ads asking people to sign virtual birthday cards for Trump and Vice President Mike Pence, despite both of their birthdays being in June. (New York Times)

“Decrying tribalism, partisanship and ‘the politics of vengeance’ in a speech” Monday in New Hampshire “that served as an unmistakable shot at Trump,” Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) “signaled he intends to use the polarizing court fight to amplify his long-standing calls for more civility and cooperation in Washington and across America.” (Washington Post)

“Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) says he is not the kind of guy who looks in the mirror every morning and sees a future president.” (Cleveland.com)

“The double lives of vulnerable House Republicans” (Politico)

Hillary Clinton will be interviewed by The Atlantic Editor in Chief Jeffrey Goldberg at the Atlantic Festival at 2 p.m. (release)

Stormy Daniels' memoir ‘Full Disclosure,’ in which she details her alleged sexual encounter with Donald Trump and her life as a stripper and porn star, is out Tuesday.” (USA Today)

“The National Rifle Association’s political spending is sharply down heading into the 2018 midterm elections, a shift that could reflect declining fundraising in the wake of a string of mass shootings and an FBI investigation into the group’s Russia ties.” (McClatchy)

 
 

Rooster's Crow

The House meets at 12:30 p.m. The House meets at 10 a.m.

Trump will host a Make America Great Again rally at 7:40 p.m. ET in Southaven, MS.

Pence will rally for MT SEN nominee Matt Rosendale (R) at 3:10 p.m. ET in Bozeman, MT. 


 
 

Swizzle Challenge

Samuel Chase was the last Supreme Court justice who was impeached.

Allison Marino won yesterday's Swizzle. Here's her question: "Since its establishment in 1789 presidents have nominated 162 judges for the Supreme Court. How many have been confirmed?"

The 3rd correct email gets to submit the next question.

 
 
 
 

Shot...

KY-06 nominee Amy McGrath (D) announced raising $3.65 million in the third quarter. (release)

Chaser...

“So your family is rich?" -- Rachel Chu

“We’re comfortable.” -- Nicholas Young

“That is exactly what a super rich person would say.” -- Rachel Chu (Crazy Rich Asians)

 
 

Justice Gilpin-Green, Wake-Up Call! Editor

Editor: Kyle Trygstad
Digital Editor: Justice Gilpin-Green
Staff Writers: Zach C. Cohen, Ally Mutnick, Hanna Trudo, Madelaine Pisani
Fellows: Nia Prater, Drew Gerber

 

This email was sent to zcohen@nationaljournal.com. If you no longer wish to receive these emails you may unsubscribe at any time.